Game Plan for Tomorrow (4-25-08) and monday (4-28-08)

25 Apr 10:19am


This is my first blog and I want to make it a good one. I am going to layout a strategy I feel will be profitable for the next two days.  Here is what I am looking at:  Visa and Mastercard report earnings monday.   MA reports Tuesday morning at 9:00am ET however I checked google finance and they release there earnings at 12:00pm ET on Monday. 

 

I am going to be focusing only on these two stocks and the direction.  My opinion is these stocks will head higher tomorrow.  Currently I have positions in both. 

I have 1 Call for Visa: (1) 67.5 V May @ 5.62

2 Calls for MA: (1) 250 May @ 6.7, and (1) 270 Call @ 3.3

 

Right now IV is around 52 for these calls and will definetly decrease after earnings, I estimated to around 40.  After AXP earnings and beat, we will see a jump in both MA and V tomorrow.  I will not be buying in the morning, I will sit back for a drop about 30 minutes into trading.    I will be buying tomorrow more calls of V, as I expect them to runnup more than MA.  I will not be buying PUTS until MA announces earnings, I will then decide to buy Puts on V as protection.

 

Chart is based on IV of 40

Stock Contracts Stock Price Option Entry Option Exit Total Cost Total Sold Profit/Loss
V 67.5 call 1 70 5.6 3.95 560 395 -165
V 67.5 call 1 75 5.6 7.95 560 795 235
V 67.5 call 1 80 5.6 12.67 560 1267 707
V 67.5 call 1 85 5.6 17.6 560 1760 1200
V 67.5 call 1 90 5.6 22.6 560 2260 1700
               
MA 270 call 1 250 3.3 2.55 330 255 -75
MA 270 call 1 260 3.3 5.34 330 534 204
MA 270 call 1 270 3.3 9.75 330 975 645
MA 270 call 1 280 3.3 15.8 330 1580 1250
               
MA 250 call 1 250 6.7 9.03 670 903 233
MA 250 call 1 260 6.7 15.13 670 1513 843
MA 250 call 1 270 6.7 22.75 670 2275 1605
MA 250 call 1 280 6.7 31.44 670 3144 2474
MA 250 call 1 290 6.7 40.81 670 4081 3411

 

Current Analysis for my positions.  I bolded the row I believe MA and V will end up on Tuesday, for MA (if they do release on monday) will be Monday.  I am hoping they release as this is part of my strategy, hoping for a runnup in V. 


I am looking to get into V 75 May calls for around 3.20-3.30.  I will buy 3 contracts and sell 2 before earnings on runnup.  Selling before earings will still have high premium, incase V does not work out. 

Keep an eye on MA, as it seems to lag behind V in terms of pecentage gain in the morning, and then catches up.  If you see a 4% gain in V, and 1% in MA, pick up some MA calls close to ATM. 

 

Good luck to all those traders out there how you enjoy the analysis.

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very nice! it would help if you add how you've calculated these fields.
Posted on Apr 25, 2008 @4:44pm
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